Sunderland handed OPTA predictions for Championship promotion as recent form calls for Regis Le Bris miracle

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The likelihood of automatic promotion for Sunderland has taken a significant hit following the Hull City defeat.

Sunderland suffered a defeat to Hull City on home turf at the weekend, with Ruben Selles’ side handing Regis Le Bris his first home defeat in the 2024/25 Championship season.

The Black Cats find themselves now sat 4th in the Championship table, with eight points separating Sunderland and the automatic promotion places currently held by Leeds United and Sheffield United in 1st and 2nd place respectively, although the pair have a game in hand as they play each other on Monday night.

It is safe to say the defeat, which came from Anthony Patterson’s costly error, has severely hampered Sunderland’s prospects of automatic promotion with 12 games left this season, and one prediction shows that Le Bris will need to formulate a miracle for the Black Cats to finish in the top two this campaign.

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Sunderland promotion predictions show likelihood of automatic finish for Regis Le Bris

There is no taking away from the job that Le Bris has done so far during his short tenure as Sunderland boss, taking a side currently to 4th in the Championship table, one which finished 16th in the pitiful 2023/24 campaign.

However, after an electric start to the season, it was clear that Sunderland was targeting a promotion push, albeit still against the odds, but the Hull City defeat appears to have put their hopes to bed.

Per OPTA Analyst, Sunderland’s chances of automatic promotion now stand at just 0.90% likelihood, whilst the Black Cats are 98.64% likely to finish in the top six.

This less than 1% likelihood of automatic promotion has resulted from Sunderland’s previous two defeats to Leeds United and Hull City, both of which significantly tarnished Le Bris’ ambitions of a top-two finish.

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Stats show downward trajectory that Regis Le Bris must fix

Sunderland’s promotion hopes are not fully tarnished, with the play-offs likely to give them the opportunity at the end of the 2024/25 Championship season, but, unless the Black Cats can maintain an incredible run from now until the end of the campaign, automatic promotion will be out of the question.

Compared to previous predictions, Sunderland had an 8.94% likelihood of automatic promotion two weeks ago, and a 9.44% chance four weeks ago, something that is a stark contrast to the current statistics.

This shows just how detrimental Sunderland’s recent run has been, and whilst the hopes of automatics are all but gone, the inconsistent nature of Le Bris’ squad must be removed before the play-offs.

Sunderland will need to be on top form for the play-offs, and whilst they have proven to be one of the best in the league, doing that consistently will be crucial for the Black Cats as they enter the dreaded play-offs, something that must start with Le Bris improving upon results immediately.