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Opta predicts chance of Sunderland promotion, Regis Le Bris can’t afford any slip-ups

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Sunderland have been handed their chances of promotion to the Premier League this season.

The Black Cats have gone lengths this season to help maintain their promotion push, with Regis Le Bris’ side currently sat 4th in the Championship table.

Sunderland, despite their recent poor result against Plymouth Argyle, have shown their quality to be one of the best in the second tier, something that is a remarkable feat when realising that the likes of Leeds United, Sheffield United and Burnley are boosted with parachute payments.

As Sunderland go past the halfway stage of the 2024/25 Championship campaign, their chances of promotion have been rated compared to their rivals.

Sunderland AFC v Plymouth Argyle FC - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by Isabelle Field/Plymouth Argyle via Getty Images

Sunderland given slim chance of automatic promotion as play-offs loom

The Black Cats, no matter where this season takes them from this point onwards, have drastically improved under French boss Le Bris.

Several of the players, particularly in the lower age bracket, have also come on leaps and bounds as a result of the Sunderland boss’ abilities to get the very best out of his side.

Whilst the draw against Plymouth Argyle, where Sunderland were unable to capitalise on Sheffield United’s home defeat to Hull City, saw the Pilgrims put a dent in the Black Cats’ promotion hopes, there is still a slim chance that the remarkable feat can be pulled off.

According to OPTA Analyst, Sunderland currently have a 9.44% chance of achieving automatic promotion, whilst also having an 89.12% chance of a play-off finish. That means that there is a short 1.44% likelihood of a finish below 6th in the table.

Compared to their fellow promotion rivals, Sunderland are seen as the outsiders, with Leeds United being handed an 83.98% chance of finishing in the automatic spots, whilst Burnley and Sheffield United have been given the predicted chances of 68.40% and 38.00% respectively.

Sunderland AFC v Plymouth Argyle FC - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Regis Le Bris can’t afford slip-ups amid automatic promotion run-in

There is no taking anything away from Le Bris if he finishes in the play-offs with this Sunderland side, something that will be a real achievement for the Frenchman in his debut season of English football.

Nonetheless, Sunderland’s ambitions now lie with chasing that automatic promotion spot, and because of that, Le Bris can’t afford any slip-ups in regards to tinkering with personnel and tactics. That was ultimately their achilles heel in the draw against Plymouth Argyle, and it is something that can’t be replicated if they want to make up ground on those above them.

The Black Cats will need to push hard, whilst hoping the current top three falter, and whilst the likelihood appears slim, it is clear that Le Bris can bring the very best out of his squad, and with that nothing is unachievable for Sunderland this season.