Opinion

Three reasons Sunderland have to fear Swansea City ahead of crucial Championship clash

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Put simply, Sunderland have to beat Swansea City this weekend if they are to keep up their charge for promotion, but it will not be as easy as some expect.

Sunderland dropped points again this week at home to Bristol City, but the draw at the Stadium of Light does keep the Black Cats in the battle at the top of the league.

Regis Le Bris’ side maintained their unbeaten home record thanks to an injury time equaliser from star of the show, Patrick Roberts, on Tuesday night.

But, Sunderland will need to dig deep and find even more mental fortitude to get the better of Swansea on Saturday.

Plymouth Argyle FC v Swansea City AFC - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by Athena Pictures/Getty Images

Swansea are wildly inconsistent and unpredictable

If there’s one thing worse than playing a top team, it’s facing a team that you simply cannot get a gauge on, and Swansea City fit into that bracket.

So far this season, they have won seven, lost seven, and drawn six games, and while Luke Williams’ side are unbeaten in the last four, it is almost impossible to know what version of the Swans will show up week to week.

Sunderland seem to raise their standards against the bigger, stronger teams in the Championship, while the Black Cats have been guilty of becoming complacent against the so-called weaker teams in the league.

Inconsistent or not, Swansea are now up to ninth in the league table, and make no mistake, they are exactly the kind of banana peel Sunderland have slipped on previously.

Sunderland AFC v Bristol City FC - Sky Bet Championship
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Sunderland will have very little of the ball against Swansea

If Sunderland are hoping for any kind of an easy ride on Saturday, they will be bitterly disappointed. Indeed, they can expect to have very little control of the game against a Swansea side who love to keep the ball.

Williams’ men are second in the division when it comes to average possession stats, with a 59.9% average putting them only just behind high-flying Leeds United.

At home, we would expect Swansea to exert their dominance on the ball, and really make Sunderland work for any semblance of possession.

TeamAverage possession %Championship rank
Leeds United61.91st
Swansea City59.92nd
Norwich City57.83rd
Burnley56.4=4th
Hull City56.4=4th
Sunderland47.715th
Data via FBRef

Le Bris has outlined the need for Sunderland to improve in many areas, and while they are great when they do have the ball, the Black Cats are towards the lower end when it comes to possession statistics in the Championship.

The intensity with which Sunderland press when out of possession on Saturday will be crucial to getting a positive outcome from the game.

Indeed, Le Bris’ men will need to make the most of the ball when they do have it, and start finishing off those chances they get in front of goal, too, or Swansea will stifle them out of the contest.

Only two teams have beaten Swansea City at the Liberty Stadium this season

It would be a stretch to describe the Liberty Stadium as a fortress, but Swansea have only been beaten by Leeds United and Millwall at home this season, two teams that are notoriously tough opponents.

In fact, across the whole campaign, Swansea have only lost games by one goal, proving they are always in the contest regardless of the result.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
1 LeedsLeeds20 12 5 3 36 14 22 41
2 Sheff UtdSheffield Utd19 12 5 2 27 11 16 39
3 BurnleyBurnley20 10 8 2 24 7 17 38
4 SunderlandSunderland20 10 7 3 29 15 14 37
5 BlackburnBlackburn19 10 4 5 23 17 6 34
6 MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough20 9 4 7 34 25 9 31

Of the teams to beat them — Burnley, Sheffield United, Middlesbrough, Blackburn Rovers, West Brom, and the aforementioned Leeds and Millwall — all have been in and around the top six at some stage this season, with Sunderland the only remaining top six side for Swansea to play.

Regis Le Bris will be hoping his young squad are not the first to come unstuck against Luke Williams’ team when they travel to South Wales on Saturday.