Sunderland have been handed a new projection on how likely they are to notch an automatic promotion spot this season.
Sunderland beat West Brom this weekend as Trai Hume’s goal clinched a second successive win for Regis Le Bris’ Black Cats.
It was a great defensive display by Sunderland, as an unchanged back-line, which yet again saw Alan Browne play out of position at right-back, managed to quash the threat of a Baggies side led by former Black Cats boss Tony Mowbray, who notched three times as many shots as Le Bris’ side.
With Sunderland weathering the storm and coming home with all three points from The Hawthorns, they now find themselves more-than firmly in the play-off places, with there being a safe 16-point cushion on 7th placed Coventry City.
More importantly, two of the Championship’s top three sides dropped points this weekend, and we looked at whether this has increased Sunderland’s chances of a slim, yet not ruled out, chance of the automatics.
OPTA predicts Sunderland chances of automatic promotion
This weekend saw Leeds United held to a 1-1 draw with Championship strugglers Luton Town, who are fighting for their lives to avoid the drop to League One, whilst Sheffield United lost to a lowly Oxford United side, with the Blades suffering a 1-0 away defeat.
As a result, the amount of points that Sunderland find themselves off of 3rd placed Leeds, who are in a dire run of form, with one win in their last six, is now at seven points with six games to play.
Whilst this gap looks reachable for Sunderland, especially considering Le Bris’ side’s upturn in form, OPTA predictions have the Black Cats’ chances of automatic promotion sitting at 0.28% likely, whilst the likelihood of finishing in the play-offs stands at 99.72%.
Black Cats shouldn’t be counted out to capitalise on current Leeds United form
This season, we have seen Sunderland struggle at times, but the general feeling around the camp is that the squad is finishing the 2024/25 campaign in top form.
Sunderland are the 4th most in form side (based on the previous six games), whilst Leeds United are in 13th after their recent poor streak.
There is no doubt that, if Leeds continued under a similar pattern, and still continue to struggle getting points on the board, whilst maybe Sheffield United or Burnley fall away somewhat slightly, Sunderland could be poised to pounce.
It might be a long shot at this stage of the season, but Sunderland certainly won’t succumb to the play-offs without a fighting chance.